WTO accession to boost Kazakh GDP

ASTANA, 14 December - Kazakhstan's accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will provide an average GNP growth by 4% in the average term perspective and by approximately 10% in the long term perspective. Such forecast was made yesterday, December 13, at a round table entitled "Kazakhstan's Accession to the WTO: Analysis and Assessment of Consequences" by David Tarr, an expert from the World Bank.
According to the expert, "depending on the situation other consequences can be expected as well." Mr. Tarr presumes that as a result of Kazakhstan's accession to the WTO it is possible that "the industrial production in several areas will decline, labour resources will quit these areas for other areas, first of all for the export-oriented ones."


"However we do not see whatever is going to happen at the labour market as a big problem. Many countries encountered such situation when they opened their markets, but the general level of employment did not decline. If preventive social measures are taken by the government, the consequences may be softer," - he observed.


He also stressed that apart from the workforce, "capital will also move to more profitable sectors. The export-oriented ventures will gain profits at the expense of lowering the exchange rate and improvement of access to other markets. Such areas of the Kazakhstani economy as petrochemical industry and metallurgy will profit while the biggest losses are expected in production of medical equipment, transport vehicles and book-printing."


In general Mr. Tarr is positive that the local producers will profit from the accession in the long term perspective, because "the openness of the market will cause a growth of the investments and the fixed capital of domestic companies. The openness of the Kazakhstani market will promote improvement of telecommunications, banking, insurance and transport services and consequently reduce costs for economic activities."